David Chao, MD
2 min read • July 30, 2022
Posted in
2021 record: 13-4, lost NFC Divisional | 2022 FanDuel O/U win total: 10.5
After winning 13 games but losing in the NFC playoffs for the third straight season, the Packers lost Davante Adams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and top pass-rusher Z’Darius Smith but remain one of the most talented rosters in the NFC.
Unfortunately, they also come into 2022 as the most injury-marred team in the NFC North with an SIC score of 89.6.
Aaron Rodgers’ pinkie toe injury that he suffered last November didn’t limit the quarterback during his MVP season, and he has fully recovered from the ailment.
The biggest concern for Green Bay lies on the offensive line, as both left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Elgton Jenkins started camp on the PUP list while recovering from significant knee injuries.
Bakhtiari played only 27 snaps in 2021, coming in Week 18, while suffering significant swelling and other issues stemming from the December 2020 injury.
He underwent two additional procedures, a cleanup scope in November and another unspecified surgery in April, since the initial surgery 18 months ago.
Jenkins tore his ACL in late-November while replacing Bakhtiari but is unlikely to be available when the season opens.
Tight end Robert Tonyan, also on the PUP list, suffered his own torn ACL in between the two linemen last October but will likely be the last to return to effectiveness.
The Packers’ new-look core of skill players comes in with no major issues, although rookie second-round receiver Christian Watson was placed on the PUP list after undergoing a minor knee surgery after OTAs to address lingering soreness.
The defense sports only one minor health question as cornerback Jaire Alexander returns after missing 13 games in 2021 because of a shoulder sprain.
The 2020 pro-bowl cornerback suffered an AC joint sprain in Week 4 and missed the last 13 games of the regular season before returning for eight snaps in the NFC Divisional round loss to the 49ers.
Alexander will be free-and-clear from the injury, according to the Pro Football Docs, and can be expected to return to form alongside second-year cornerback Eric Stokes in what PFF graded as the No. 4 secondary in the NFL.
The Packers gave bruiser AJ Dillon a greater role in the offense in 2021 working alongside pro-bowler Aaron Jones as each gained over 1,100 total yards.
Jones picked up a mid-season MCL sprain and Dillon suffered a rib injury that knocked him out of the playoff loss but both backs have a clean bill of health, according to the Pro Football Docs.
Bakhtiari is still attempting to comeback from his torn ACL with associated cartilage and meniscus damage on New Year’s Eve 2020 that has now needed three surgeries.
The Sisyphus struggle that Bakhtiari has described as a “nightmare” concerns the Pro Football Docs, who believe that he will be able to return to the field but in a limited form.
Jenkins, meanwhile, has a cleaner recovery as he won’t have to deal with the cartilage and meniscus issues that have plagued Bakhtiari.
It remains unclear, however, if he’ll be available for the season-opener, but he will post approximately three-fourths of his normal production.
Tonyan will have the most-troubled season coming back from a torn ACL among the Packers’ trio, according to the Pro Football Docs, and won’t be the relied-upon weapon for the offense he has been the last year-and-a-half.
The tight end is the longest-tenured Green Bay pass-catcher and he will still need to contribute on some level for a new-look receiving corps headlined by Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and rookie Christian Watson.
2021 record: 8-9 | 2022 FanDuel O/U win total: 9.5
The Vikings narrowly missed the playoffs for the second year in a row in 2021 and responded by replacing Mike Zimmer with former Rams’ coordinator Kevin O’Connell, who will preside over one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
O’Connell also takes over a roster that is among the healthiest in the league, and the second-healthiest in the Division, with an SIC score of 93.1.
Kirk Cousins signed another extension with the Vikings following a pro-bowl season in 2021 and remains at risk of absence due to his unvaccinated status.
His blindside blocker, Christian Darrisaw, will come in much healthier in his second season after missing six games in 2021, four coming after he underwent surgery in August to address a lingering groin injury.
Star running back Dalvin Cook and veteran wideout Adam Thielen both missed time with significant injuries but opened camp as full participants.
Thielen aggravated a high-ankle sprain in Week 16 and didn’t return, while Cook missed four games with a variety of ailments including a dislocated shoulder and torn labrum in Week 12.
Tight end Irv Smith Jr., who was projected as a breakout candidate in 2021, returns after missing the entire season with a torn meniscus.
On defense, edge-rusher Danielle Hunter suffered a season-ending torn pectoral muscle in Week 7. He has played in only seven games since his All-Pro 2019 season because of the pectoral injury and a herniated disc in his neck.
Thielen has become a touchdown merchant in the two years playing with Justin Jefferson, hauling in 24 scores on a sky-high 17% touchdown rate.
The former undrafted receiver out of Minnesota State will be fully healed from his late-season high ankle sprain, according to the Pro Football Docs, and in a place to produce once again.
Cook has been through the injury ringer in his five-year career but has persevered as one of the most productive running backs in the league.
The Pro Football Docs say that Cook is clear of his 2021 shoulder injury – the fifth between both shoulders in the last decade – but can be counted to miss pockets of time if he continues to rack up 20-plus touches a game because of his aggressive style.
The elite athlete was tabbed as the starting tight end heading into 2021 when he suffered a torn meniscus and underwent season-ending surgery.
The Pro Football Docs carry a healthy concern for Smith Jr. because his recovery took nine months, much longer than the normal 4-to-5 month timeline, and meniscus injuries can be fickle and re-occurring due to the lack of blood flow.
2021 record: 6-11 | 2022 FanDuel O/U win total: 6.5
The Bears traded a slew of picks last April to draft dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields in the first round, and are now in year one of Fields as the starting signal-caller from day one.
The Bears’ other top-40 pick in 2021, left tackle Teven Jenkins, played in only 161 snaps across six games in his rookie season after undergoing back surgery in August to address a lingering lumbar issue.
Chicago has also brought in veteran offensive linemen Riley Reiff and Michael Schofield to fill up the gaps left by incumbent right guard Dakota Dozier and retiring veteran Jason Peters.
Dozier underwent surgery earlier this month to repair a torn ACL, while Reiff missed the last four games of the season and the entire playoff run after suffering an ankle injury in Week 14.
Wide receiver Allen Robinson II left for the Rams in free agency but was mostly ineffective in 2021.
Robinson II missed five games with a variety of ailments, and in his absence, Darnell Mooney established a strong rapport with Fields to the tune of 523 yards and 13.4 average air yards per attempt, good for 11th-best in the league for a QB-WR duo.
Workhorse running back David Montgomery missed four games with an MCL sprain, but finished the season and has been able to participate fully in Chicago’s offseason programs.
On defense, mainstay linebacker Khalil Mack was traded to the Chargers and former first-round pick Roquan Smith was placed on the PUP list as he “holds-in” while negotiating a long-term contract.
He is the only main roster Chicago player on the PUP list and the only defensive player with any availability concerns at this point.
Fields missed five games in 2021 with a variety of injuries, none of which will carry over into 2022, according to the Pro Football Docs.
The collection of injuries does concern the Docs, however, because it highlights the danger that his off-schedule playing style will put him in.
Fields can look to two current elite starters, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray, to see the blueprint for the two outcomes for small out-of-pocket quarterbacks: Wilson, who has learned to limit danger and played in 149 consecutive games, and Murray, who has had the last two seasons derailed by mid-season injuries.
One of the Bears’ brightest spots in the last two years has been Montgomery, who gained 1,150 total yards on 267 touches in 2021.
Montgomery suffered a mid-season MCL sprain that cost him four games, but the injury won’t linger into 2022 and the back will once again be in line to notch between 250 and 300 touches behind Fields and a rebuilt offensive line.
Jenkins dropped to No. 39 in the 2021 Draft partly because of concerns about a lumbar strain he suffered the previous November, fears that came to fruition as Jenkins missed all but 161 snaps while recovering from preseason back surgery.
The GM at the time, Ryan Pace, said that the surgery fixed whatever issue was ailing Jenkins, and the Pro Football Docs are confident that Jenkins will be fully healthy heading into 2022.
With the recent addition of Riley Reiff, it is unclear if Jenkins will start at left or right tackle, but he will be physically capable of succeeding at either slot.
2021 record: 3-13-1 | 2022 FanDuel O/U win total: 6.5
For the second consecutive Draft, the Lions held a top-7 pick and eschewed drafting a quarterback for taking a blue-ship linemen, following up 2021 selection Penei Sewell with edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
Their No. 2 selection followed a campaign in which Detroit was without its franchise left tackle, No. 1 cornerback, and top-end tight end for much of the season.
The Lion’s lost the first of their in Week 1 when cornerback Jeff Okudah suffered a non-contact ruptured Achilles tendon and underwent season-ending surgery for the second time in his two-year career.
The former No. 3 overall pick has been a full-go in the first few days of training camp and looks physically impressive, according to reports.
Starting defensive end Romero Okwara also suffered an Achilles tendon tear in Week 4 of last season and could return in time for the regular season.
Left tackle Taylor Decker missed the first eight games after suffering a finger injury ahead of Week 1 but was able to return for the second half of the season.
T.J. Hockenson has been a full participant in offseason programs after undergoing season-ending thumb surgery last suffered a thumb injury in Week 13 and underwent season-ending surgery but has been a full participant at training camp.
DeAndre Swift missed four games with a shoulder sprain in the middle of what was otherwise a solid sophomore season for the dual-threat running back.
Jared Goff’s two newest targets, Jameson Williams and DJ Chark Jr., are both coming off of significant injuries but only Williams was placed on the PUP list.
Hockenson comes into his all-important fourth season fully healthy, according to the Pro Football Docs, after undergoing surgery to repair a likely thumb avulsion fracture that damaged the bone and the ligament.
Before the injury, Hockenson was on pace to set new career-highs with 61 catches, 585 yards, and four touchdowns working in a mostly anemic passing offense.
Hockenson has projected as an elite fantasy tight end since going as the No. 8 overall pick in 2019 and he will be in a position to take that leap in 2022.
Similar to Hockenson, Swift has been on the doorstep of breaking out in his first few years and has a clean bill of health for the 2022 season.
Swift suffered an AC joint sprain on Thanksgiving and missed four games, although the Pro Football Docs believe that he could have played through the injury but was held out until he was fully recovered.
Despite missing a quarter of the season, Swift logged 213 touches for 1,069 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns and finished as a top-20 back in PPR and half-PPR fantasy leagues.
Decker was able to return from his preseason finger injury in Week 10 and logged a 75.5 overall and an 84.0 pass-block grade from PFF in the next eight games.
The 6’7”, 318-pound behemoth suffered a foot injury in the season finale that kept him out through OTAs, but the Pro Football Docs believe he has fully recovered from both injuries and should return to the level of play that earned him a $60 million contract.
Okudah is tracking to be available Week 1 nearly a year to the day since suffering his torn Achilles tendon, while Okwara will trail at least a month behind, helping contribute to the 15-point difference in the SIC scores. Okudah is still in a position to produce for Detroit, but he will be limited as he regains strength in his lower left leg.
Okudah has started only seven games since the Lions drafted him No. 3 overall in 2020 and has undergone season-ending surgeries on his Achilles in September 2021 and a lingering core muscle surgery in December 2020.
Detroit took the lanky Alabama receiver with the No. 12 overall pick despite Williams likely being unavailable or ineffective for most of his rookie season after tearing his ACL in January.
Once he does return, Williams will work alongside Chark Jr., who the Pro Football Docs say will be fully recovered from the left ankle fracture he suffered late last September.
Written by David Chao, MD
