Taylor Bicht
2 min read • March 26, 2024
Posted in
As a new Major League Baseball season approaches, the excitement among fans and bettors alike is palpable. The air is filled with the promise of home runs, no-hitters, and thrilling come-from-behind victories. However, amidst this anticipation, there's a critical factor that bettors keep a keen eye on—player injuries.
In the world of MLB Futures betting, injuries not only affect the outcomes of individual games but can also significantly alter the landscape of the entire season.
Understanding the impact of these injuries is crucial for anyone looking to place informed bets on future MLB outcomes. From the star slugger dealing with a nagging abdominal issue to the ace pitcher recovering from Tommy John surgery, every injury has the potential to shift the odds and change team dynamics.
Here are a few MLB Futures betting with a special focus on injuries:
The under 91.5 win total for the New York Yankees holds considerable value, primarily due to significant injury concerns surrounding key players. Notably, the elbow injury to ace pitcher Gerrit Cole and the lingering toe and abdominal issues affecting star outfielder Aaron Judge are at the forefront of these concerns.
Additionally, the potential for Gerrit Cole to miss the entire season, a scenario looming over the team, amplifies the value of betting on the under for the Yankees' win total.
The Yankees are starting the season with additional concerns, including being down corner infielder DJ LeMahieu due to a foot injury. LeMahieu's versatility and batting prowess have been key components of the Yankees' success in recent years.
The combination of significant injuries to star players, potential for key absences, and lack of depth at critical positions makes the under 91.5 win total for the Yankees a compelling bet.
The San Francisco Giants present a compelling case for betting on the over for 83.5 wins for the upcoming season, a proposition buoyed by a blend of robust health across their roster and strategic free agency acquisitions that signal a strong potential for enhanced performance.
The notable acquisitions of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler add depth and quality to the Giants' roster
The Giants' carry the second-highest SIC Score heading into 2023.
Adding together San Francisco’s excellent health, strategic acquisitions, and a high SIC Score the over 83.5 wins total hold great value in the futures betting market.
The under 23.5 home runs future for Byron Buxton offers considerable value, primarily due to the consistent injury struggles that have significantly impacted his career. Buxton, once a highly touted prospect known for his blend of power and speed, has seen his potential repeatedly curtailed by injuries. His inability to stay on the field is the central factor underpinning the value of this bet.
In his nine-year career, Buxton has surpassed the 23.5 home run threshold only once, underscoring the challenge injuries have posed to his power-hitting capabilities. The reality of his situation is dark but seen numerous times; despite possessing the talent to be one of the game's elite players, his physical health has not allowed him to compile the number of at-bats necessary to consistently hit home runs at a high volume.
The fact that Buxton has played over 100 games in a season only once is a critical statistic that highlights his struggle with durability. For power hitters, regular at-bats are crucial for finding rhythm and timing at the plate—elements that are essential for hitting home runs. Buxton's recurring absences disrupt this rhythm and limit his opportunities to contribute power numbers significantly.
Betting on the under recognizes both the patterns of Buxton's career thus far and the inherent challenges his injury history presents for achieving high power-hitting totals.
The over 23.5 home runs total for Oneil Cruz presents a great value, particularly when considering his power-hitting capabilities demonstrated in a shortened 2022 season.
The key to unlocking the value in this proposition lies in extrapolating Cruz's home run pace from the limited action he saw in 2022 to a full season's worth of at-bats.
Cruz projects to hit within the range of 24-26 home runs over a standard MLB season, according to multiple projection sites. This projection comfortably places him over the 23.5 home run total, assuming he maintains a similar level of performance and is afforded a full season of opportunities at the plate.
Playing a full season not only offers Cruz more at-bats but also the chance to find and sustain a rhythm at the plate. For power hitters, consistency and confidence are crucial, and an uninterrupted stretch of games could help Cruz optimize his timing and power output.
Betting on the over for Oneil Cruz's 23.5 home run total is underpinned by his demonstrated power-hitting ability, the projections that suggest he can exceed this total with a full season of at-bats, and the expectation of a healthy return.
Written by Taylor Bicht
