2 min read • January 29, 2022
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It’s hard to believe but there are only three meaningful football games left in the NFL season. FanDuel Sportsbook has an extensive list of player props for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
There aren’t huge health edges in either game according to our team SIC Scores. However, there is one prop that sticks out to us in the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.
Matthew Stafford Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards
The Rams' offense enters this game almost completely healthy. The only injury of note is to LT Andrew Whitworth, who missed the Divisional Round game against the Buccaneers with an ankle injury. However, he’ll return on Sunday and we believe be effective in helping to protect Stafford from the fierce 49ers pass rush.
We give the Rams’ offense a SIC Score of 88.9, which means it’s extremely healthy at this point in the season. Even running back Cam Akers is the healthiest he’s been all year with a SIC Score of 74. Now, hopefully he can hang onto the ball this week.
This total seems a little low for Stafford, given he has his full complement of weapons. Stafford has started 19 games this season and his longest pass went over 39.5 yards 13 times, including the last time he faced the 49ers. That means Stafford hits the over on this number 68.4 percent of the time this season. We like those odds.
More recently, Stafford has gone over 39.5 yards in seven of his last nine games. The two times he didn’t go over, his longest pass landed on 35 and 37, so he just missed.
The other stat to look at is yards per attempt. Stafford ranks third in this category averaging 8.3 yards per pass. We know Stafford will take some deep shots in this game. He just needs to complete one of them for this bet to cash.
When there are fewer games, the lines for props get tighter. There isn’t a ton of value on the board this week and all four teams are healthy overall with SIC Scores over 83.
Considering all the variables, we like Stafford’s longest pass to go over 39.5 yards in the NFC Championship Game.
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