2 min read • March 02, 2022
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By: Eric Romoff
We have an eight-game slate on board tonight in the NBA and, as always, player availability and injuries are going to play a significant role. We’ve got several teams who have players unavailable due to injury and a few others that are happy to welcome back players recently on the mend. I have identified four plays using information from Sports Injury Central that could be absolutely pivotal to your success today in DFS.
The first game we will talk about features two teams with the lowest SIC scores on the board today, so there is no shortage of things to break down. The Phoenix Suns carry a SIC score of 71.7 as they are already without point guard Chris Paul and have Devin Booker entering the health and safety protocols. This clears the way for several players to get additional minutes in the Suns’ backcourt, but the player to prioritize is Aaron Holiday. Cameron Payne has been filling in for the absent Chris Paul but is now dealing with a wrist injury of his own. While he is expected to play, that wrist injury could limit Payne’s effectiveness and should lead to lower usage overall. Aaron Holiday, on the other hand, is fully healthy, expected to start at shooting guard, and has experience as a creator should the Suns need him at the point. Both players should be fairly popular, but I see Holiday having considerably more upside.
On the other side of this game, we find a Portland Trailblazers team with a 67.2 SIC score and decimated to the point where guys on 10-day contracts are expected to see considerable playing time. Of the myriad of options, my favorite far and away is Anfernee Simons. We have seen his role in this offense expand since Damian Lillard went down several months ago, but it is the circumstance of tonight’s game that makes Simons a key play. For most of the season, we have been fading guards against the strong perimeter defense of the Phoenix Suns. Tonight with Chris Paul and Devin Booker both absent, Simons’ additional usage is far more likely to bear fruit. I’m expecting his over $8K price tag to scare most DFS players off of him, which will create significant leverage as I have him projected to flirt with 5X value in tonight’s game.
Our next play comes from a game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks, two teams with SIC scores in the mid-to-upper 80s. The Miami Heat are confirmed to be without starting point guard Kyle Lowry as he attends to personal matters. This opens the door for Gabe Vincent to continue his impressive run in Lowry’s stead. Despite his play on the court, where he’s averaged nearly 20 fantasy points in his last ten games, Vincent’s price tag largely remains unchanged. I’m expecting him to be one of the more popular options tonight, but with limited value available I think you take the salary relief and look to get different elsewhere in your lineup. His opponents in the Milwaukee Bucks are middle of the road against point guards, but allow the most 3PM to the position in the league, a specialty of Vincent’s game.
Our last play comes from a Philadelphia 76ers team that is suddenly one of the healthiest units in the association. In addition to somehow shedding what looked to be 20 pounds shortly after being treated to Philadelphia, James Harden has also had a miraculous turnaround in his battle against lingering hamstring issues. In his three games as a 76er, Harden is averaging nearly 70 fantasy points per night and is showing flashes of being the MVP not that long ago. Harden is capable of leading all scorers on any given night, yet it is only the fourth most expensive option tonight on DraftKings. He has immediately established himself as the point of emphasis in the Sixers offense and as a triple-double threat with easy dishes inside to Joel Embiid and to Tyrese Maxey left all alone on the perimeter. Clearly, Harden’s hamstring is feeling just fine, and he is a borderline lock for tonight’s slate.
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