Taylor Bicht
2 min read • February 06, 2024
Posted in
With the injury landscape unlikely to change ahead of Super Bowl LVIII, our injury algorithm has pointed to some key areas that have value ahead of the big game.
The following are free picks, a preview of our premium picks based on the SIC Score algorithm available through SIC Picks here.
Both Teams To Score 20+ Points - Yes
Both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers go into the Super Bowl with very clean and healthy offenses with the major concern being the Chiefs All-Pro LG Joe Thuney, who is nursing a pec strain. The average offensive pass SIC Score between the two teams is 92.7 meaning the QBs and main offensive weapons are a full go health wise.
Players like Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle who have been listed on the injury report in recent games will be close to 100% heading into Sunday which should lead to points on the board. Each team averaged over 20+ points during the regular season and have continued that trend in the playoffs. If you're afraid of the overall total this prop is a safe and unique way to profit on the points scored.
Deebo Samuel U14.5 Rushing Yards
The dual threat WR Deebo Samuel has always been a threat to run throughout his career and has been effective doing so in games where the 49ers have had injury issues at RB. Recently they have ridden their workhorse Christian McCaffrey leaving Samuel an average of 1.6 carries a game in the last seven. In those seven games Samuel has gone over this prop just once including zero times in the playoffs.
Expect Samuel to struggle rushing the ball against a healthy, elite Chiefs LB core and to help things they will get back LB Willie Gay Jr. who missed the Ravens match due to a neck injury.
Fifteen - Patrick Mahomes 15+ Rushing Yards and 215+ Passing Yards (Taylor Swift Prop)
The Super Bowl draws all kinds of fans every February but this year a new wave of viewers will be watching - fans of pop star Taylor Swift. DraftKings Sportsbook has been kind enough to put multiple Swift Special bets on the book including the one highlighted above specifically centered around the number 15.
Besides being the number of star QB Patrick Mahomes, the significance lies in the name of one of her popular songs named 15 from her second studio album Fearless. In the three playoffs games this year Mahomes has covered this special prop each time and should again clear these numbers during the Super Bowl.
Brandon Aiyuk U62.5 Receiving Yards
The San Francisco 49ers WR core is at his healthiest going into the Super Bowl with Deebo Samuel over his shoulder issue while we at sicscore.com have no issues with George Kittle and his toe injury. Christian McCaffrey is full go after dealing with a calf injury in the later part of the year but will play full snaps including being fed in the receiving game.
49ers leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk who managed 1300+ yards this year will be covered by elite CB L'Jarius Sneed, who is past his calf issue that hampered him most of the season. Expect the Chiefs rather healthy pass defense to make it difficult for Aiyuk on Sunday.
Nick Bosa O0.25 Total Sacks
The main injury concern going into the Super Bowl is the health of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney. The guard missed the AFC Championship due to a pec strain, an issue that will linger into Super Bowl preventing him from operating at his usual elite level. The San Francisco 49ers deploy a potent D-line that has rounded into form of late due to the line becoming completely healthy.
Premier edge rusher Nick Bosa has benefitted from this in the playoffs averaging 4.5 QB Hits a game including a two sack game last time out. With the Thuney injury and poor play at tackle, expect Bosa to be a problem for Mahomes and Co. all game.
Travis Kelce O15.5 Receiving Yards 1Q
A fun way to bet props is per quarter to ensure a quick cash creating a happy medium for people that struggle to watch an entire event lasting over three hours. The Kansas City Chiefs star TE has had an up and down year in the box score starting off the season poorly due to a bone bruise suffered days before the Chiefs' Week 1 match. Playoffs have been a different story for the TE who is averaging over 87 yards per game including a 116 yard performance against the Ravens.
In the 1Q of the Chiefs three playoff games Kelce has posted 19, 15, 42 yards with the one game falling short by the hook due to the Bills opening the game on 14 play drive leaving the Chiefs time for one total drive. Expect the Chiefs to feed their star TE early and often.
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Written by Taylor Bicht
