How An Ankle Sprain Turned Patrick Baldwin Jr. From Blue Chip To Likely Second Round Pick

Patrick Baldwin Jr. - SIC Score 56

There was a moment in the fall 0f 2020 when Duke was waiting on bated breath for top-10 prospect Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s college decision and it was reasonable to ask whether he or Paolo Banchero would be their best player in Mike Krzyzewski’s final season. 

Now the 6’9” combo forward is projected by some as an early-to-mid second round pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft after a disappointing season at mid-major University of Milwaukee-Wisconsin; what happened?

The ProBasketballDocs point to Baldwin Jr.’s December 2020 left ankle sprain that has lingered far beyond a normal recovery period as a distressing variable. 

Baldwin Jr. carries an SIC health score of 56 based on the assumption that if the injury didn’t heal in a year-and-a-half it is unlikely to improve between now and the beginning of his rookie season. 

The 19-year-old suffered a significant left high ankle sprain with a bone bruise and potential dislocation on December 4, 2020, which prematurely ended his senior season of high school. 

He never underwent surgery and the injury continued to bother him as his freshman season began, worsening after another left ankle sprain on Nov. 23. In February, Patrick Baldwin Sr. – his father, who was also the head coach in Milwaukee – announced that he would sit out the rest of the season and focus on preparing for the Draft. 

In one season severely limited by the left ankle injury and a bout with COVID, Baldiwn Jr. scored 12.1 points with 5.8 rebounds and an abysmal 34.1% shooting in 11 sporadic games. 

The Docs see a parallel with an NFL player, Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas. 

Thomas suffered a severe left high ankle sprain that lingered throughout the 2020 season, then he underwent surgery in June 2021 and missed the entire upcoming season. Unfortunately, Thomas still appears to be hampered by the sprain even after two years of rehab. 

Baldwin Jr. has dealt with similar lingering issues in his ankle, potentially with multi-million dollar consequences. 

He features a similar high-risk, high-reward upside as another former blue-chipper, Michael Porter Jr. 

Porter Jr. suffered a back injury in high school before deciding to play for his dad at Missouri. His lone season was stalled by an aggravation to his back injury and he dropped to the Nuggets at No. 14.

After a slow-and-steady first three years, signed a $172 million extension before missing all of last season with another back surgery. 

Baldwin Jr. could go as high as No. 18 and as low as No. 45, according to CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander. 

His landing spot and that team’s style for managing injuries will likely have a big say in whether he can return to his pre-sprain upside or if he will wilt away.