James Rodriguez
2 min read • October 20, 2023
Posted in
Use the Injury Edge to quickly see all the significant injury mismatches broken down by offense and defense to highlight where the advantages lie.
To get The Injury Edge sent to your inbox this week, go to https://sicscore.com/premium
Select Sign up for SIC DATA, select the Weekly option.
NFL weekly data will be finalized each Friday. The Injury Edge will be emailed to all paid subscribers each Saturday morning.
What do you get when a relatively healthy offense ranking in the top five in total yardage and third in points faces off against a defense decimated by injuries? An opportunity for an offensive explosion. There are numerous areas of opportunity within this matchup.
The greatest difference in injury scores occurs between the Bills’ pass offense versus the Patriots’ pass defense. Although QB Josh Allen is listed on the injury report with a right shoulder injury, an injury he sustained and played through last week, he has been participating during practices, albeit, in a limited fashion. He is considered day-to-day, but he is expected to play. His weapons on the other hand, are healthy and gearing up to face a defensive secondary with only two starters absent from the injury report.
The Patriots are well-known for thoroughly utilizing their injury designations during the week, but the player’s in question are truly questionable to be fully effective during this matchup. CB Jonathan Jones suffered a knee injury during their last matchup and began the week as a DNP. Knee injuries can affect an athlete's ability to accelerate and change directions. That will be problematic if he finds himself lined up opposite WR Stephon Diggs. S Jabrill Peppers, S Kyle Dugger, and CB Shaun Wade are other defensive backs dealing with injuries although they appear to be more management type injuries than debilitating ones.
LB Josh Uche is another injured defender that could negatively impact the Patriots’s defense. He has seen an increase in snaps since Matt Judon’s injury but he injured his foot during last week’s matchup and was another player listed as a DNP on Wednesday. A defense absent of their best pass rusher Judon and currently ranking as 21st in pass rush win rate, per ESPN analytics, can use all the help they can get to assist their banged up secondary.
The Patriots do have one advantage on the injury front and that lies with their pass offense versus the Bills’ pass defense. The Bills’ defense is already without LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White, and DE DaQuon Jones. Now the defense is managing a recent toe injury to DT Ed Oliver who registered a DNP on Wednesday. He has the possibility to play pending practice participation throughout the week but the Bills have been conservative managing lower body injuries this season. Both DE Greg Rousseau and CB Dane Jackson missed one game due to foot injuries so a conservative approach is not out of the question for Oliver. With the injury disadvantage the Patriots’ defense will face against the Bills offensive attack, their pass offense will be needed to keep pace in the game.
There’s no great secret as to why the Commanders have an injury advantage over the Giants. The Giants’ offensive line has been in disarray this season due to the surplus of injuries. The hits keep on coming as the Giants lost another offensive lineman to a season-ending injury. OG Shane Lemieux ruptured his biceps during practice a week after returning to action while managing a groin injury. He is the fourth lineman to be placed on IR this season.
As if that isn’t bad enough, OT Evan Neal, C John Michael Schmitz, OT Andrew Thomas, and OT Matt Peart registered DNPs to start this week of practices putting all of their statuses and effectiveness at risk. That explains their 28th ranked pass and 17th ranked run block win rates, per ESPN analytics, this season. QB Daniel Jones has practiced in a limited fashion this week but has not been cleared for contact. If Jones is cleared for contact, he can expect a lot of contact upon his return facing a defensive front without injury concerns.
The Lions will be at a disadvantage attempting to run against the Ravens. Starting RB David Montgomery is expected to miss the game and both reserve RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds are dealing with soft tissue injuries. Gibbs has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury he suffered during practice. He practiced at a limited capacity Thursday but limited practice does not simulate the stress he will experience to his hamstring during a game. Without registering multiple full practices to test the integrity of the injured tissue, Gibbs is at risk for reaggravating his strain. If Gibbs suffers an injury upon return, the subsequent recovery could be longer.
The same rule applies to Reynolds as he is also dealing with a hamstring injury. He followed his DNP on Wednesday with a limited practice on Thursday. Both backs are at risk and their ability to accelerate and sustain their top speed will be affected. Throw in the fact that OG Jonah Jackson has been absent from practice due to an ankle injury and the Ravens have the advantage in the run game. Also, LB Odafe Oweh is nearing return from his own ankle injury complicating matters even more for the Lions’ ground game.
Rams injury advantage in the pass game against the Steelers is dependent upon the return of two of the Steelers’ top pass catchers, TE Pat Freiermuth and WR Diontae Johnson. Each of these players are attempting to return to the field after suffering hamstring strains. Unfortunately, Freirmuth suffered a setback and will miss the next few weeks. Johnson on the other hand, registered another full practice and should be expected to return to a full load similar to WR Cooper Kupp’s return from his hamstring strain a couple of weeks ago.
That does not mean that Johnson is a lock to complete the game as all returns from soft tissue injuries warrant concern. Two top targets, two hamstring injuries, one questionable to return, and one on the right side of returning versus a healthy secondary indicates a difficult challenge for the Steelers’ passing attack.
Our NFL Pick'em contest is live - PLAY NOW!
First prize gets $100 CASH and a free year of full premium access to SIC PICKS valued at $499.99.
New users who beat ProFootballDoc win a free week of SIC PICKS valued at $49.99!
Written by James Rodriguez
