2 min read • September 15, 2023
Posted in
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I'll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
The new-look Broncos’ offense under Sean Payton struggled in their season opener, upset 17-16 at home against the Raiders. Denver scored two touchdowns in the first and second quarters, holding a three-point lead at halftime. They were shut out of the end zone for the rest of the game and were outscored 7-3 in the second half. It’s too early to write Payton off, but the offense did not look much better than last season, finishing bottom 10 in offensive yards in Week 1, tied for the eighth-fewest points scored. The passing game was especially concerning, held to less than 170 yards through the air. However, the team was missing their No. 1 option Jerry Jeudy, who was ruled out with a hamstring strain. Despite being limited throughout the week, SIC gave Jerry Jeudy a 48 SIC score last Friday, meaning he would not be anywhere near 100% healthy if he tried to suit up.
Sports Injury Central defines the SIC score as a proprietary numerical injury index grading system, powered by algorithms that incorporate the health of teams and individual players. The scale ranges from 1 to 100, with the latter indicating full health. Entering Week 2, Jeudy’s SIC has skyrocketed, all the way up to 78. He may be difficult to trust in his first game back, but should be out on the field this Sunday, as the Broncos take on the Commanders in Denver. Since Russell Wilson joined the team last season, the team’s passing efficiency has been much better in games Jeudy recorded a 15%-plus snap share, averaging slightly fewer dropbacks with over 25 passing yards per game (+25.26).
Since 2022, Denver averages two scores through the air when Jeudy played over half of the game, and less than one and a half passing touchdowns when he is severely limited or out (1.2). In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to quantify the impact of Jeudy's presence on Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton. The only other relevant pass catcher that played with the team last season and in Week 1 is Greg Dulcich who has already been ruled out with a hamstring strain of his own. Sports Injury Central has given Dulcich a 24 SIC score, likely out for multiple weeks. The primary beneficiary of Dulcich’s absence is Adam Trautman who started the game and tied Sutton for the team lead in targets (5), finishing first on the team in receptions (5) and second in receiving yards (32).
Russell Wilson was not the same player we saw during his 10-year run in Seattle, posting career lows in passing touchdowns (16) and competition percentage last season (60.5%). Missing Jerry Jeudy in Week 1, Wilson dropped back 34 times, tied for 13th in the NFL, but failed to surpass 180 passing yards (177). Although his 79.4% completion rate was the second-best mark at the position, Wilson averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt. Since joining the Broncos, Wilson has averaged 3.33 more pass attempts with five out of 16 games Jeudy out of the lineup or limited to less than 15 snaps. However, his passing yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage take a significant hit across the board. Week 1 was the first time Wilson scored multiple touchdowns without Jeudy, saving his fantasy day. With Jeudy healthy, Wilson averages 4.52 more points per game.
Courtland Sutton hasn’t ever looked quite the same since coming back from a torn ACL, never surpassing 830 receiving yards in a season post-surgery. His production has been dependent on volume, which is much harder to come by with Jerry Jeudy on the field. In Week 1 without Jeudy, Sutton led the team in routes (30), with an 85% route participation rate, finishing tied for first on the team in targets (5). Sutton saw a 16% target share, catching four passes for just 32 yards. He was fortunate to find the endzone in his first game after scoring only two touchdowns all of last season. In five games where Jeudy has failed to record a 15%-plus snap rate, dating back to 2022, Sutton averages the same number of touchdowns (0.2) but is more frequently targeted (+1.85), increasing his overall production. With Jeudy out or limited, Sutton averages nearly two more receptions (1.96) per game, 30.82 more receiving yards (30.82), and 4.27 more PPR Points. His 17-game pace without Jeudy would result in 142.8 targets, 95.2 receptions and 1,275 receiving yards, all career-highs.
Written by
