2 min read • September 30, 2023
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The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I'll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA, and MLB.
The Saints were on their way to a perfect 3-0 start Sunday, holding a 17-point lead at the half against the Packers. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse in the third quarter when Derek Carr got sacked and exited the game with a shoulder injury. The offense struggled once Jameis Winston took over, punting five times in the second half. Green Bay rallied behind Jordan Love and company, scoring 18 unanswered points after Carr left. Saints rookie kicker Blake Grupe had a chance to take back the lead with just over a minute remaining but missed a 46-yard field goal that ultimately sealed the game.
Carr has been held out of practice and considered week-to-week with a sprained AC joint. Sports Injury Central has given him a 37 SIC score, trending toward doubtful in Week 4.
Coincidentally, this was the same week Winston missed last season after suffering multiple back fractures and an ankle injury. Andy Dalton took over as the starter and held on to the job for the rest of the season. In this article, I’m going to use the splits tool to see how the offense functioned with Winston as the starter vs. Carr and Dalton. I’ll exclude Rashid Shaheed, who was not on the active roster when Winston played last season. Shaheed didn’t play more than a quarter of offensive snaps until Week 11 and averaged 4.0 targets, 3.3 receptions and 55 receiving yards in his last seven games. Through three weeks, Shaheed has posted similar production, seeing four targets per game for three grabs and 50.7 receiving yards. He did not log a single reception in Week 3 but scored the second touchdown of the day on a 76-yard punt return.
The Saints traded significant capital to move up and select Chris Olave in the draft last year. Olave has been well worth the cost thus far. He hit the ground running as a rookie, displaying immediate chemistry with Jameis Winston. With Winston at the helm in his first three career games, Olave averaged a league-high 178.67 air yards per game, accounting for 41.68% of the team’s air-yard share. In Week 2 alone, Olave was targeted 13 times by Winston and became the fourth player in NFL history to post 300-plus air yards in a single game (334). Even when Winston went down, Olave continued to thrive, recording the fifth-highest yards per route run by a first-year player in over a decade (2.4). As dominant as Olave has been in his last 15 games, his overall receiving production was slightly better with Winston as the starter, aside from getting shut out of the endzone. He has yet to score this season, despite ranking top 10 in targets (32) and receptions (22), with the sixth-most receiving yards in the NFL (302).
Michael Thomas played just three games last season, all with Jameis Winston under center. He wasn’t the same player who broke the single-season receptions record in 2019, finishing as the WR1 overall, but he produced at a high level when available, averaging the ninth-most fantasy points at the position in 2022 (17 PPR/14.4 half-PPR). In six games played over the last two seasons, Thomas’s receiving volume in terms of targets (-1.34) and receptions (-0.67) have been slightly worse with Winston as the starter but the increase in average depth of target has resulted in better yardage (+1.67). Through three games, Thomas currently has an 8.08-yard aDOT, 2.69 yards lower than last season (10.77). The main difference has come from the scoring department, where Thomas had three touchdowns in three games in 2022 but has yet to find paydirt this season. That should improve with Winston, who, since joining the Saints, has targeted Thomas on all five of his passing attempts inside the red zone.
Alvin Kamara is set to make his debut in Week 4, returning from a three-game suspension. He played two games with Jameis Winston last season, missing Week 2 with a rib injury before returning in Week 3. With the Saints opting to let Winston air it out, Kamara’s rushing production declined, averaging only 12 carries for 50 rushing yards and being held without a score. Despite seeing a small uptick in targets (+0.42), Kamara caught 1.5 fewer passes with Winston, failing to surpass double-digit receiving yards per game (9.5). It’s hard to take too much away from a two-game sample, but it is worth noting that Kamara was likely banged in Week 1, playing just 62% of snaps. Mark Ingram was also still on the team, logging a 33%-plus snap share in every game started by Winston. Neither Tony Jones nor KenDre Miller has shown enough to keep Kamara off the field once he returns. Jamaal Williams also won’t be back anytime soon, forced to miss at least three more games on the injured reserve list. Sports Injury Central currently has Williams with a 35 SIC score.
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