Taylor Bicht
2 min read • September 13, 2024
Posted in
In Partnership with Steve Fezzik - @FezzikSports on X
Famous sports bettor Steve Fezzik and injury analysis experts at SICscore.com are partnering throughout the season to provide deeper insights into how injuries and game dynamics affect betting outcomes.
Let's dive into a little math as we get to our pick of the week!
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently the best team in the NFL, with a rating of 5.5 points better than an average team. However, if we're being conservative, we could argue the San Francisco 49ers are slightly better, despite their recent health issues. Let’s give the Niners a 6-point advantage over an average team, though it's hard to justify that considering their current injury concerns.
On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings are close to being an average team, but for the sake of argument, let's assume they're one point worse. Even this conservative estimate would place the spread at seven points on a neutral field when matched against a healthy 49ers team. Yet, Minnesota’s home field advantage is strong, easily worth two points. This would reduce the spread to five points, matching the current line of San Francisco -5.5.
While this number might seem reasonable on paper, the spot heavily favors the Vikings. San Francisco is coming off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football, and they face the added challenge of traveling a long distance to Minnesota. The Vikings, in contrast, are well-rested and prepared for a crucial home game. The Niners’ lack of urgency, especially after winning their season opener, could lead them to rest key players like Christian McCaffrey, making it unlikely they'll push questionable players to suit up.
Given the circumstances, all the value appears to be with the Vikings. While the spread might seem fair based on raw numbers, situational factors favor Minnesota, making them an appealing option.
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Written by Taylor Bicht
