David Chao, MD
2 min read • February 10, 2023
Posted in
This season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes will look to snap a streak plaguing recent MVP winners. The past 9 MVP winners to play in the Super Bowl have lost the big game. In the Chiefs’ favor, he will play on a mostly healthy right ankle.
Mahomes carries a SIC score of 91 for the game and should have his usual mobility in and out of the pocket. The only potential downgrade is to his ability to throw deep, which requires him to plant and stress the outer ligaments of his right ankle.
Kansas City is down Mecole Hardman, but Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce are “full go.”
Toney suffered a mild inversion left ankle sprain in the AFC championship, but should feature in the slot with Hardman out. He may have limited ability to cut using his left ankle, but his speed will be intact. His hamstring is not a concern for the big game.
Smith-Schuster aggravated a knee injury he picked up prior to the AFC championship, but should be able to manage the issue for his first career Super Bowl. If needed, he can use the exercise bike to stay warm.
Kansas City has a pass offense health score of 83.5, but ranked first in passing yards and passing touchdowns during the regular season.
On defense, L’Jarius Sneed cleared concussion protocol and will likely play full snaps. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who was limited early this week with an illness, and linebacker Willie Gay, who left last game with a stinger, are also not a concern.
Although all 11 starters are healthy, the Chiefs’ ability to stop the run will likely come into focus. They have a run defense health score of 91.6. They also allowed the 8th least rushing yards per game during the regular season.
Although the Eagles have a higher SIC score, they have big health question marks at key positions. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not one of those question marks.
The second-year QB suffered an SC joint injury in Week 15, but should be fully healed by now. If he does have any lingering soreness, it will not affect his ability to run or pass and he can opt for a pain-numbing injection before the game or at halftime.
Right tackle Lane Johnson is another matter. He’s playing through a torn adductor on his right side which limits his ability to pass block, according to the Pro Football Docs.
He has allowed two pressures and had two penalties in his two games of action since the injury, which should be a concern potentially going against Frank Clark and Chris Jones. Early last week, our staff took an in-depth look at Johnson’s snaps against the 49ers and saw the variety of techniques the Eagles used to help protect the right side.
Slot cornerback Avonte Maddox is another concern for Philadelphia. He tallied 3 tackles in his first game back from a Week 16 turf toe injury while playing roughly a third of his usual snaps.
Turf toe injuries are difficult for cornerbacks to play through given the big toe’s importance in accelerating. The good news is the Eagles have plenty of star power in the secondary to help mask that potential weakness.
They have a pass defense SIC score of 91.5 and ranked first in passing yards allowed during the regular season.
The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points and the over under is 50.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mahomes and Hurts are tied at +130 for MVP, with Travis Kelce at +1600 an A.J. Brown at +2500.
Kadarius Toney O 28.5 receiving yards
Toney is the main beneficiary of Hardman’s absence along with Maddox not being 100%. Expect the Chiefs to look for him often in the slot, especially if extra attention is paid to Travis Kelce.
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Written by David Chao, MD
