David Chao, MD
2 min read • February 07, 2023
Posted in
Last time Patrick Mahomes II faced the Philadelphia Eagles, he threw for 278 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 42-30 victory in October 2021. He also rushed 5 times for 26 yards and was sacked just once.
In Super Bowl LVII, his right high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round likely won't prevent him from repeating that performance.
Mahomes carries a SIC score of 91 for Super Bowl LVII, meaning he will have nearly the same mobility he had all season when fully healthy, according to the Pro Football Docs.
The main effect of his lingering high ankle sprain will likely be seen when he attempts deep throws, according to the Pro Football Docs. The action of planting on the backfoot and putting everything into a deep throw could still be painful for Mahomes at this point, but he does have the arm talent to get by.
Last week against the Bengals, Mahomes threw for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns but did not pass his longest pass prop of 38.5 yards. His longest completion was a 29-yard pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
His longest pass prop is over/under 38.5 yards again this week despite facing an Eagles defense that ranked third in the regular season with just 40 plays of 20+ yards allowed.
Mahomes’ rushing prop has increased to over/under 19.5 yards, despite him rushing three times for 8 yards in the AFC Championship win over the Bengals.
The 2019 Super Bowl champion was also sacked 3 times against Cincinnati, the most since Week 9 against Tennessee.
During the regular season, Philadelphia logged 70 sacks – tied for third most all-time in a single season. They also had 50 sacks while sending four-or-fewer rushers, 7 more than any other team in the Next Gen Stats era.
Needless to say, Mahomes and his injured right ankle will be put to the test in numerous ways during Sunday’s Super Bowl LVII.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LVII Odds
The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points and the over/under is 50.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are both +130 to win Super Bowl MVP.
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Written by David Chao, MD
