2 min read • January 23, 2022
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams meet in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Our SIC Scores give the Rams a 4-point edge in team health. One reason the Buccaneers have a team SIC Score of 79.5 - lowest in the Divisional Round - is injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
We're using one of those injuries as a main factor to bet player props this Sunday at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tyler Higbee Over 40.5 receiving yards
Tyler Higbee +230 Any Time TD
Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David suffered a sprained right foot in Week 15 but returned for the Buccaneers Wild Card round win over the Philadelphia Eagles. While some in the national media deemed David to be fully healthy, we disagree.
David had trouble changing direction in the open field and was routinely beaten by Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert on pass routes. Goedert caught six balls for 92 yards and his numbers should have been even better.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts was late on some throws to Goedert and that allowed the safety to come over the top and help David in coverage. If Hurts had gotten those passes off sooner, Goedert would have easily gone over 100 yards receiving.
Obviously, a coach like Sean McVay noticed the same thing on film and we expect Higbee to be a key part of the Rams’ passing attack on Sunday. Looking beyond health, Higbee comes into this game hot. He has at least 41 yards receiving in five straight games and seven of his last 10 overall.
Higbee also had a good game when these two teams met back in September, catching five balls for 40 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs finished in the middle of the back when it comes to allowing yards to tight ends this year (50.7). However, seven tight ends went over this number against Tampa Bay during the regular season, and Higbee just missed with 40.
We also like Higbee +230 to score a touchdown in the game. David’s issues changing direction near the goal line could come into play here. Unlike last week, Matthew Stafford won’t wait for the Bucs to bring safety help over the top to defend the tight end.
Also, it will be more difficult for Tampa Bay to double-team the tight end with Cooper Kupp and a healthy Odell Beckham Jr to defend. Look for Stafford to exploit a lot of single coverage on Higbee.
When you factor in health and other variables, investing in Higbee props on Sunday looks like a wise investment.
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