What to Expect From Patrick Mahomes II in AFC Championship

DCM

David Chao, MD

2 min read • January 25, 2023

Posted in

NFL
What to Expect From Patrick Mahomes II in AFC Championship

If there’s one quarterback in the league that could get by on arm talent alone, it’s Patrick Mahomes II.

The MVP front-runner suffered a right high ankle sprain in the second quarter of Saturday’s win over the Jaguars, returning in the second half to throw for 111 yards and a touchdown on 10 of 16 passing.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story with a dynamic talent like Mahomes, but this right ankle sprain may limit his ability to make deep throws.

In the second half, he went 2 of 5 for 43 yards on passes with 15 or more air yards. If there is any effect to his passing ability, that is likely where it would show, according to the Pro Football Docs.

Although his mobility was limited in the pocket, he was able to maintain accuracy on short throws. He went 8-11 for 68 yards and a touchdown in the second half on throws with less than 15 air yards.

Upon video review, his down-the-field throws were lacking some of their usual zip, but the underneath throws did not appear affected.

Mahomes has a knack for making off-balance throws, which will likely help him in this case. However, his ability to plant and throw off his right foot on deep routes could be hampered.

High Ankle Sprain Comparisons

The only other quarterback to play through a right high ankle sprain this season was Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. 

Tannehill suffered the injury just before the 13-minute mark in the first quarter. He missed a series then returned with his right ankle heavily taped.

He finished the game 14 of 21 for 163 yards with an interception. 

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones suffered a left high ankle sprain in Week 3 and missed 3 games. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a left high ankle sprain in Week 4 and returned to the game, in part because backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion. 

By video, Mahomes' sprain is not as severe as Tannehill's or Mac Jones', but is slightly worse than the sprain suffered by Daniel Jones, according to the Pro Football Docs.

Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Odds

The Chiefs are 1.5-point underdogs at home against Cincinnati and the over/under is 47.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City is +280 to win Super Bowl LVII, while the Bengals are +250 and the Eagles are the favorite at +230.

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