Why We Like the Over on Odell Beckham Jr.'s Receiving Yards Prop

It’s finally clear who will be throwing Odell Beckham Jr. passes this season.

On Thursday, Lamar Jackson officially signed his 5-year, $260 million extension. During his contract negotiations, the Ravens signed Beckham to a one-year, $15.75 million contract and drafted Boston College wideout Zay Flowers with the 22nd overall pick.

With Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and Nelson Agholor also in the mix, it will be interesting to see how the target distribution unfolds during the season.

That being said, the Pro Football Docs are optimistic about Beckham’s chances to produce in the loaded Ravens’ offense. 

Beckham will be healthy and ready to go for the start of the season, despite his ACL tear in the 2022 Super Bowl.

By the time the season starts, his recovery will be in month 18 and he has no medical downgrade.

The bigger factor will be rust associated with missing a full year of football and learning his fit in the Ravens’ offense.

In 14 games split between the Browns and Rams in 2021, Beckham finished with 44 catches for 537 yards.

He was much earlier in his ACL recovery that season and was not able to create the same separation he typically has, especially during the first half of the season with the Browns.

Here’s David Chao M.D., ProFootballDoc, talking about Beckham during his March 7 podcast with Evan Silva.

Last season, the SIC staff went 11-6 in futures bets, including going 7-5 in injury-based player props.

Given his positive medicals going into the new season, SIC Picks pounced on one of the first NFL player prop futures released for the 2023 season. The number was released at DraftKings Sportsbook with the yardage set at 575.5.

In his eight regular season games for the Los Angeles Rams the WR accumulated 305 yards while getting steadily more involved as the season ended and if he matched this measly pace in 2023 he would still shoot past prop by 35 yards. 

With a whole offseason to work with superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson the initial number is low considering Beckham has gone over 1,000+ yards every year he plays 12+ games, excluding last season.

Cons are clearly built into the prop number with rust being a factor. It will be over two years since Beckham played a meaningful snap.

A crowded receiving room is also a factor as mentioned above but looking at the list Beckham has the talent to at least be the WR2 with WR1 potential. 

The offense is also not WR friendly with the team running the ball 51.9 percent of the time, third highest ratio in the league.

Regardless of the cons, Beckham’s prop number has been set too low which leads to tremendous value in the over.

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