2 min read • January 12, 2022
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You may have heard, Tennessee Titans star running back Derrick Henry is returning for the playoffs. FanDuel Sportsbook released odds on who will lead the NFL in rushing during the playoffs and Henry opened as the +400 favorite, followed by Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette, who is also returning from an injury.
We won't see King Henry during Wild Card Weekend because the Titans have the first round bye in the AFC. The key to winning this bet obviously is to pick a player who will have multiple chances to rack up rushing yards. However, even if you like Tennessee to make a Super Bowl run, there are reasons to be weary of Henry cashing this bet.
When healthy, Henry is the most dominant running back in the NFL. But is he fully healthy? Henry was placed on injured reserve on Nov. 1 after suffering a fractured foot. Despite missing eight games, Henry rushed for 937 yards.
D'Onta Foreman took over as Tennessee's main back while Henry was sidelined and rushed for 566 yards. Most people are expecting Henry to take over the full workload in the playoffs but we aren't as confident.
According to ProFootballDoc David Chao, those expecting Henry to get 30 carries a game will be disappointed.
"This injury always felt longer than the 7-8 week initial timetable," Chao said. "In the most recent video, he still favors it slightly. The Titans will be careful. He won't be King Henry upon return. Expect a split with Foreman."
So with Henry overpriced, what about Fournette? Fournette landed on IR in Week 15 with a hamstring injury but is reportedly on track to play versus the Eagles on Sunday. However, we're still not sold that Fournette is 100 percent either.
Ronald Jones and Ke'Shawn Vaughn will see time too but when Fournette is healthy, he dominates the snaps, especially in bigger games like we saw in last year's playoffs. But again, is he fully healthy?
We give Fournette a SIC Score of 52 and Jones 84 heading into Sunday, so our projections suggest we are still a week away from seeing full blown Playoff Lenny.
With both favorites returning from injuries and not a lock to dominate touches, bettors may want to roll the dice on a longer shot.
Patriots running back Damien Harris is +2000 to lead the playoffs in rushing is interesting. We give the Patriots a SIC Score of 88.8, making them the third healthiest team in the playoffs. Harris has a SIC Score of 90, so we believe he's healthy enough to handle a full workload Saturday night in temperatures expected to be below zero.
Harris has already faced the Buffalo Bills twice this season and eclipsed 100 yards on the ground both times. He rolled over Buffalo's defense for 214 yards on just 28 carries (8.4 YPC). Those numbers would have been even more impressive if Harris didn't injure his hamstring in the first meeting.
Some might be concerned about the presence of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson but Bill Belichick has traditionally rode one horse at running back in the playoffs. Expect that horse to be Harris and if the Patriots upset Buffalo, he'll likely have piled up a lot of rushing yards heading into the second game. You can do worse than Harris at +2000.
So, whichever running back you decide to back, we recommend avoiding Henry. At +400 and returning from a serious foot injury, the value just isn't there.
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